Nebius expects to invest between $40 billion and $45 billion in 2027, even as it has just cut its revenue forecast for this year because of delays at data centers it does not directly control. The strain raises a central question for AI infrastructure: how much capital is needed to build computing capacity, and what happens if centers are not ready when customers expect to receive the service.
The most useful comparison is not just between revenue and spending: it is between the speed at which this infrastructure is built and the speed at which customers start paying for it. Nebius reported quarterly revenue of $980.8 million, while some of the capacity planned for this year will be pushed to 2027.
Revenue does not erase the cost of growth
Nebius's $980.8 million in quarterly revenue represents a 571% increase over the same period last year and exceeded estimates cited by TNW. Even so, the company cut its 2026 revenue forecast by $200 million, to $3 billion, and expects that figure to land at the low end of its previous range of $3 billion to $3.4 billion.
The company attributed the adjustment to delays at facilities it leases from other companies. If a center is delayed, expected sales can be pushed back while expenses continue to accumulate. The risk is not abstract: Nebius expects to spend about $27 billion this year, according to CNBC, and plans to increase that figure to between $40 billion and $45 billion in 2027.
The plan depends on facilities coming online and contracts translating into delivered capacity. Nebius expects revenue of between $12 billion and $13 billion in 2027 and expects to reach break-even before tax in the fourth quarter of that year, according to TechCrunch.
A recent precedent involving Nebius
The most prominent case is a 300-megawatt data center in Vineland, New Jersey, operated by DataOne and linked to an agreement between Nebius and Microsoft. TechCrunch reported that the facility was months behind schedule and that only slightly more than half of the capacity planned for Microsoft was expected to be delivered before the end of the year; the rest would be pushed to the second quarter of 2027.
The story also shows that a project can run into trouble for reasons beyond construction. WHYY reported that New Jersey authorities fined DataOne for operating 62 natural gas generators without a permit. The company said they were a temporary solution until Bloom Energy fuel cells became available; residents, meanwhile, expressed concern about noise and emissions.
The company says the centers it is building itself are on schedule or ahead of schedule, while delays are concentrated at locations it does not control. That distinction matters: building at owned facilities can provide more control, but it does not eliminate the need for power, permits, and local execution.
Microsoft raises the bar for delivery
The delays matter to customers, too. Bloomberg reported, according to TechCrunch, that Microsoft is increasing oversight of third-party projects and reconsidering whether to sign new agreements. In Nscale's case, Microsoft will not exercise an option to more than double its agreement for a data center in Texas and is no longer the anchor customer for a planned project in Essex following power supply problems.
For an operator like Nebius, a relationship with a major customer can be both a source of financing and an execution requirement. Advances or long-term contracts help support construction, but the customer needs to receive capacity on the agreed dates. TechCrunch notes that Nebius's contract with Microsoft includes penalties for delays and allows affected services to be canceled after a grace period if firm dates or alternative capacity are not offered.
This makes the schedule a commercial variable, not just an operational one. When a company fails to deliver on time, it may postpone revenue, face penalties, or lose expansion options. For the customer, by contrast, the ability to review agreements reduces dependence on projects that are not progressing at the expected pace.
Upfront financing cuts both ways
Nebius expects customer advances and contract-backed financing to cover between 75% and 85% of its 2027 spending. The financing is backed by agreements with major customers, including Microsoft and Meta, according to Reuters. It is a way to tie the resources needed to build infrastructure to contracted demand, but it also makes delivery timelines directly important: if a facility is delayed, it takes longer for the capacity to generate revenue.
The company says its customer advances cover more than the cost of building the capacity associated with new agreements. It also says its own data centers are on schedule or ahead of schedule, while delays are concentrated at locations it does not control. That position coexists with the risk that a contracted facility may take longer to become operational or that the schedule expected by the customer may change.
Contract-backed financing shifts part of the risk onto the ability to fulfill those contracts. If the asset is delayed, the committed money is financing a facility that is not yet delivering the expected service. And if the customer changes its plan, the operator may be left with costly infrastructure whose demand is no longer assured on the same terms.
What the sector should watch
For developers building services on AI infrastructure, the practical impact is availability: data center delays can shift when a provider delivers the capacity it has promised to its customers. In Nebius's case, some of the capacity for Microsoft was pushed to 2027. The episode shows why delivery dates are part of the technical and commercial planning of those who depend on an external provider.
For companies buying that capacity, the dilemma is balancing access and dependence. Reserving infrastructure in advance can secure resources, but a delayed facility forces them to adjust plans or seek alternative capacity. Microsoft's example shows that a major contract does not guarantee that every future option will be exercised or that a customer will remain the anchor for every project.
There is also a local dimension. The Vineland center faced penalties over unpermitted generators, as well as neighborhood complaints about noise and concerns about emissions. The announced transition to fuel cells may reduce certain pollutants compared with gas engines, according to WHYY, but the facility is still associated with carbon dioxide emissions. For operators, power and permits are part of the deployment process, not details to be dealt with after construction.
The market will have to watch whether Nebius can turn its increased investment and contracts into operational centers within the timelines its customers expect. The company expects revenue of between $12 billion and $13 billion in 2027 and expects to reach break-even before tax in the fourth quarter of that year.
Sources: TechCrunch, TNW | Finance, WHYY
